Labour win casts doubt on pollsters

Posted by Nichola OConnor at Fri, 07/11/2008 - 8:17am in Political commentary

Against all expectations, Labour have not only won the Glenrothes by-election but retained the seat with a majority of more than 6,000 votes. The result will lead to some worried faces both north and south of the border.

The biggest concern will not be that Labour won - after all this was a safe seat - but the re-emergence of the ‘wall of silence’. Pollsters, pundits and politicos were all calling the seat for the SNP. Friends in both the SNP and Labour who were on the ground campaigning all said that it was too close to call. Yet on Election Day Labour stormed the seat – proving that the only poll that ever really counts is the ballot box.

The by-election win is the first time Labour has succeeded in halting the SNP juggernaut ince the Scottish elections, which culminated in the loss of Glasgow East in July this year. So, is it possible that we are seeing is a return to 1992? This is when pollsters would be met with silence when asking voters of their intentions and as a result underestimated the support for the Conservatives? At the time the most significant answer which people would give was over the question of economic competence. Major’s Government consistently scored above Labour on this measure and as a result won.

If, as it appears with Glenrothes, that people are too embarrassed to say that they will vote for Labour then we have to look more carefully at people’s opinions on the respective party’s economic competency. Of course it is likely that there is still a long way to go to the General Election but the most recent survey that sought to understand voters’ opinions on the economy was the YouGov poll on 31 October. It asked who people trusted more to look after the interests of ordinary people during the present crisis. 33% said Labour to 28% who said the Conservative.

As the economy sits firmly at the top of the agenda, and it may very well decide the outcome of the election, unless this gap narrows Labour will be quietly pleased. Maybe the 'Brown Bounce' isn't that of a dead cat after all?

Tagged with: Scotland