Cuts and (a lack of) thrust

Posted by Gavin Devine at Wed, 16/09/2009 - 7:38am in Political commentary

So the newspapers this morning are abuzz with the 'news' that Gordon Brown has finally allowed the word "cuts" to escape his lips.  Big deal.  The only interesting thing about this is its timing, and what it demonstrates about paralysis and self-deception at the heart of Government.

Mr Brown's conversion to the need for "cuts" (as opposed to "tough choices", "economies" and "savings") comes several weeks after David Cameron and Vince Cable reached the same conclusion.  Therein lies the problem.  The Government's position over the past two or three months, including the false debate between Conservative cuts and Labour investment, has looked deluded at best, deceitful at worst.  The Government's vacillation and drift will surely not be forgotten by voters, no matter how important and high-profile the speech yesterday.

But then there seems to be plenty of delusion to go around.  On the front-page of the Observer this weekend a "senior cabinet aide" is quoted as saying "how popular is the 50% tax? It's off the charts" (as though it's a revelation that hammering the very rich turns out to be a popular policy).  Well, whoppee!  It doesn't exactly matter, does it, when the overall poll rating is 27 percent or lower?  This only shows that the policy is way more popular than Labour itself.  And it is worth remembering that even the Tories in 1997 had a few popular policies, and look what happened to them.

As an aside the same aide observed that Conservative proposals on "inheritance tax just hammers home who they are for".  This is a depressing reminder that Labour strategists have never really understood this policy.  They have never recognised that there are huge numbers of people, and not just Old Etonians in the leafy south, who see inheritance tax as inherently unfair.  That is true whether they are directly affected by it, or whether they aspire to be.  So if the strategy is still to use inheritance tax to paint the Tories as the party of privilege it will backfire.  It could be used to talk about financial profligacy, yes, but never privilege.

No, Labour supporters would be better to skip the posturing on the front-page of the Observer, and turn instead to Andrew Rawnsley's comments on p.25.  He points out that it is not all over for Labour, and makes the particularly good point that "the polls are not actually all that good for the Conservatives, who continue to bob around 40 points when they should be achieving at least 45".  The game is not yet up.  Being defeatist and talking about a strategy tp shore up the base (back to the front page again) is entirely premature.

As Rawnsley says, with decisive and inspiring leadership, based around a coherent and forward-looking narrative, Labour could yet use its genuinely national reach (there is a good case that it is the only truly British party) to make a far better fight of the election than it currently appears.  But hang on.  Where is that decisive and inspiring leadership going to come from?

There is surely only one answer to that: Gordon Brown.  The other Labour contenders don't yet have the weight and the voter recognition of the Prime Minister.  Despite it all there is something familiar and reassuring about him.  But he needs to get in front of the debate, rather than follow it.  As an example, and another example of the 'Labour problem', pretending that cutting universal benefits is a radical policy is just hopeless - surely everyone is resigned to seeing them go, and if the finances are as dire as everyone says that ought to be just the tip of the iceberg.  We need more from Labour than this.

Somehow the lumbering beast of Government needs to become fleet-footed and confident again.  And here's a start: Cameron has tried very hard not to say where the Tory cuts will fall.  Brown could very easily put him on the back foot by starting to set out his plans.  He could start to chart a course into the future, talking about hope as well as austerity, and exposing the 'Broken Britain' slogan of the Conservatives as empty and overly negative.  His conference speech in a couple of weeks is a great chance to start.  For the sake of a good political debate, at least, let's all hope that he can take it.

Tagged with: Labour Party, Gordon Brown, Conservative Party